Sat. Dec 2nd, 2023

Why market timing doesn’t work: S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just 8 days explain the gains

The S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just eight days that explain most of the gains. 

If you want a simple indication of why market timing is not an effective investment strategy, take a look at the data on the S&P 500 year to date.  

Nicholas Colas at DataTrek notes that there have only been 11 more up days than down days this year (113 up, 102 down) and yet the S&P 500 is higher by 14% year to date. 

How to explain that the S&P is up 14% but the number of up days is about the same as the down days?  Just saying “there’s been a rally in big cap tech” does not quite do justice to what has been happening. 


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